Forecasting Alisadr Cave Tourism Demand using Combination of Short-term and Long-term Forecasts

Document Type : Original Article


Faculty of Computer Engineering, University of Isfahan, Iran


Nowadays, the tourism industry has become one of the most important sectors in the world economy. Due to the perishability of this industry, accurate forecasting of the demand is very important for tourism planning and resource allocation. Studies show that due to the diversity and complexity of the factors affecting tourism demand, the combination of different approaches may increase the forecasting accuracy. The aim of this paper is to forecast the tourism demand of Alisadr cave. For this purpose, a method based on artificial neural networks is presented, in which the results of linear and non-linear methods and short-term and long-term forecasts are combined. This method is applied to a dataset of Alisadr cave tourists. The evaluation results show that in most cases, the proposed combined method can predict the tourism demand with higher accuracy than the monthly and seasonal methods based on neural networks and random forest models. The predictive models obtained from this study can enhance customer service and improve the interaction between users and tourist ticketing web applications and online reservation programs.  


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 Elaheh Malekzadeh Hamedani received her MSc degree in Electronic Commerce from University of Isfahan, Iran, in 2016. Her research interests include data mining, recommender systems, user modeling, and personalization.
 Marjan Kaedi is an Associate Professor at the Faculty of Computer Engineering, University of Isfahan, Iran. She received her Ph.D. degree in Computer Engineering from University of Isfahan in 2012.  She is currently the leader of Electronic Commerce Research Lab and her current research interests include user modeling, recommender systems, and machine learning.
 Zahra Zojaji received Ph.D. degree in artificial intelligence field from Amirkabir University of Technology, Tehran, Iran, in 2017. She is now an assistant professor in Software Engineering branch in University of Isfahan. Her main research interests include machine Learning, data mining, social network analysis, evolutionary computations and genetic programming.